The Economic Evaluation of Agricultural Sector in Nigeria: A Disaggregated Analysis using Dynamic ARDL Model

Abstract

Before the oil boom in 1970s, agriculture exhibited the pillar of Nigeria’s thriftiness, providing natural resources for industries, generating job chances up to 70%, and food security to the citizens, providing 40% of budgetary income, 60% of external exchange and accounting for 47% of the output expansion in the nation. But due to oil roar in 1970s, the accentuation of government moved from agricultural to oil segment. This shift led to disregarding the agricultural segment as the oil became the chief means of income generation for the government, thereby accounting up to 60% of the nation’s external revenue. It is in view of this that this research evaluated the economic impact of agricultural sector in Nigeria: A dis-aggregated analysis within the period of 1986 to 2023. Data used was sourced from CBN statistical bulletin. GDP, proxied for economic expansion served as an endogenous variable, while the exogenous variables for disaggregated agricultural sector outputs were Crop Production (CRP), Live Stock Production (LSP), Fishery Production (FSP), Forestry Production (FRP) and Inflation Rate (INF). Consequently, this research work made use of Ex-Post Factor research plan in which multiple regression was utilized. Dynamic ARDL was employed as the research technique and the results showed that crop production significantly and positively impacted economic growth by 0.42%; while live stock production significantly promoted economic growth by 0.43%. However, fishery production negatively and insignificantly impacted on economic growth by 0.10%; while forestry production positively impacted on economic growth in Nigeria by leading to 0.29% increase in GDP, but statistically not significant. Based on the results, the research recommends that government should efficiently provide a safety and stimulating surroundings for commercialized agrarian activities which will stimulate internal and external investors to commit in different components of agrarian activities in the nation.